German Marshall Fund Blog - Latest Comments

Re: Labor Pains: Why the Transatlantic Jobs Crisis is Worse than it Appears

Kbledowski — Tue, 15 May 2012 08:00:50 -0000

High American joblessness stems primarily from hightened aversion by investors to plunge into expansion of capacity even when demand is generally on the rise. By contrasts, Europe is still undergoing a typical balance sheet adjustment: constraints in loanable funds combine with shaky demand for domestic goods and services to produce underutilization of all types of capacity.

There are no miracle solution in the very short term. Yet the author is right to point out that the human tragedy of depreciating skills, dejection, and attrition of human capital. In the end, this is also very much a social problem that will have political implication at the ballot box for years to come.

Re: Labor Pains: Why the Transatlantic Jobs Crisis is Worse than it Appears

Stephen — Mon, 14 May 2012 20:03:46 -0000

A good working definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. If Keynesian prescriptions like these really worked, the largest stimulus bill in history -- nearly a trillion dollars -- would have bounced us out of the recession, as some predicted. But it did not. We are in the slowest recovery of any postwar recession, and may well double dip.

The reason is this: Government cannot take anything from anyone without first taking it from someone else (whether through taxation, borrowing, or currency devaluation). Government stimulus only stimulates part of the economy -- it harms the rest of it. Every government job destroys more than one private sector job (or prevents it from coming into being).

The answer is to take our medicine, cut government spending to sustainable levels, and hope to solve problems through free transactions rather than government force.

Re: The Lid Cracks Open on Beijing’s Black Box

Guy de Jonquières — Wed, 09 May 2012 12:22:03 -0000

Good article that encapsulates the implications of Bo's demise and the underlying tensions in China. As the last paragraph points out, the turbulent events in China can only complicate its international relations. Skilful diplomacy will be needed if these are to be kept on a stable footing.

Re: Greek Elections and the Geopolitics of Chaos

Panagiotis Voulgaris — Tue, 08 May 2012 19:57:42 -0000

Dear Sir,
the political landscape of Greece may be not as chaotic as it shows. Austerity-skeptics seem to gain momentum worldwide, so it may be a healthy trend, not another Greek malady. The go-it-alone strategy is not entrenched in the society or the political scene, just as fascism never took real roots; the exit from EU or eurozone are appalling concepts to anyone, save for the detached leadership of the far right and stalinic-left. The symptomatic rise of the far-right (18%) may well be attributed to the social "steam" that had to be released after 5 long recessional years of austerity that brought every disfunctional practice and trend, simultaneusly, on the surface; security decline is of the most prominent and traumatic among these trends . The voters had to convey their rejection of these practices to the mainstream politicians, that they hold rightfully responsible for 40 years of poor leadership and misleading, in a way that everyone stands in awe. It looks like this feeling went well beyond Greece's territory, which may be another good sign.
One may have to wait for the dust to settle, namingly the next (less emotionally burdened) election round to get the real picture. And that will probably happen next month. So, the current flux should not be blown out of geopolitical proportion. The greek society is fiercely evolving, questioning any established policy, foreign and domestic.
Pair it with the french elections' outcome, so to quote Mr. Paul Krugman: "both the euro and the European project now have a better chance of surviving than they did a few days ago" http://nyti.ms/Jq8lmI
Sincerely

Re: Europe’s Elections and the Politics of Austerity

Dae'Ros Dai'Meyez — Tue, 08 May 2012 02:42:37 -0000

tell them you are prepared for armageddon to stop austerity. it's over.

Re: Europe’s Elections and the Politics of Austerity

Dae'Ros Dai'Meyez — Tue, 08 May 2012 02:41:20 -0000

I implore you to reach out to the governments of italy spain greece and the uk and form a union dedicated resoluted to tell the germans they can lock you all in a bunker for years and blackmail you but you will not concede or compromise at all. You have one offer and one offer only: they socialize all of the debt of the euro zone or face ALL of our abandoning the euro and acting to sabotage the german economy. No compromise, no recourse.

Re: Europe’s Elections and the Politics of Austerity

Andrej Matisak — Mon, 07 May 2012 15:54:30 -0000

Agreed:
Real questions remain, however, whether Hollande and the emerging anti-austerity coalition will be able to translate campaign rhetoric against austerity into an alternative strategy that both satisfies creditors and puts Europe on a sustainable path to growth.
Just one correction: Czech government's no-confidence vote had very little to do with austerity measures.

Re: Exploring the Cyprus-Israel Alliance in the Eastern Mediterranean

Chris P. — Thu, 03 May 2012 03:00:59 -0000

I think this analysis is very well written and thought out. However, I do have to take issue with some the things written by Sir Michael Leigh. The idea of creating an energy connection between Israel, Cyprus and Greece is not a "pipe dream" as Sir Michael Leigh insinuates but it is definitely perceived as a serious policy option for all three countries, given the continuing deliberations taking place between them at the highest governmental level about the matter. This is certainly the case where Israel and Cyprus are concerned, where the same American and Israeli companies (Noble Energy and Delek) were involved in natural gas drilling. However, it is true that any such ambitious project will take years to materialize if it does occur.

In terms of Israel and Turkey, it is true that the strengthened ties with Greece and Cyprus cannot serve as a subsitute either economically or geostrategically for Israel's former close relations with Ankara. Nevertheless, the perception among Israeli policy leaders is that there has been a definite strategic shift in Turkey's foreign policy and that even if relations are restored they will never return to the high level once enjoyed by both countries. In this sense, they have chosen to strengthen to their military and strategic ties not only with Greece and Cyprus but Balkan states like Romania and Bulgaria in what appears to be an effort to create a counterbalance to Turkey. For the time being it appears to be a serious long-term policy choice.

Re: Exploring the Cyprus-Israel Alliance in the Eastern Mediterranean

Paul — Tue, 01 May 2012 23:03:02 -0000

I don't see Turkey becoming more conciliatory in its approach to Israel any time soon; in fact, PM Erdogan's AKP party have pulled Turkey further east, and recent polls indicate the Turkish people have a very negative opinion of Israel as well. FM Davutoglu still insists on a formal apology and financial renumeration from Israel for the Turkish IHH members killed aboard the Mavi Maramara, who attempted to enter embargoed Gaza waters under the pretext of bearing humanitarian supplies. Additionally, selling Turkey as the regional "sheriff" is a bit misleading; Turkey is and has always been more like regional bully with neo-Ottoman expansionist designs on its neighbors; a standing "casus belli" with Greece over Aegean sovereignty; a 38-year old occupation and colonization of a third of the Republic of Cyprus; a complete blockade of landlocked Armenia; recent gunboat diplomacy against Cyprus and Israel for exploiting hydrocarbons within their own, internationally-recognized EEZs, etc...When it comes to Turkey, it has always been "what is mine is mine, and what is yours is negotiable." Israel and the West would do well to finally understand this. Greece may be experiencing an economic crisis and may have smaller airspace than Turkey, but as established western democracies, both Greece and Cyprus are far more reliable partners for Israel and the West, and have proven it throughout their histories.

Re: Exploring the Cyprus-Israel Alliance in the Eastern Mediterranean

TASOS IACOVIDES — Tue, 01 May 2012 08:28:09 -0000

PLEASE LEARN HOW TO USE THE SPACE KEY TO SEPARATE WORDS IN YOUR ARTICLE....!!!!
PAY MORE ATTENTION AND READ WHAT YOU WRITE SIR MICHAEL. EDIT, EDIT, EDIT. IT ALL SHOWS THAT YOU ARE NOT METICULOUS IN YOUR WORK.
TASOS IACOVIDES
ENGINEER/PHYSICIST

Re: Exploring the Cyprus-Israel Alliance in the Eastern Mediterranean

Aramis — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 21:45:52 -0000

Fairly balanced opinion piece. I would disagree with the closing remarks:"The door should remain open to cooperation with other regional players, including Turkey, when political circumstances permit." Cooperation with turkey tends to be very one sided. In addition Turkish over confidence overreach and arrogance is not expected to subside anytime soon based on five centuries of history.

Re: Deconstructing France’s Battle Royale

TG — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 16:07:44 -0000

Good analysis - it is also important to remember that many of Le Pen's voters are young people who have been impacted by the fiscal crisis and are very unlikely to vote for Sarkozy. They will either abstain or vote for Hollande, mainly as a rebuff to Sarkozy. The focus on immigration and security will not help Sarkozy with these voters, that will only attract the hard core anti-immigrant Le Pen voters.

Re: Why Belfast Matters: Lessons from a Peace Process

Sophie Guerin — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 00:16:04 -0000

This is a great post and certainly very true. With divides this deep, the peace process is never completely "over." It requires maintenance, cooperation and comprehensive support. Despite the challenges that Northern Ireland faces, it seems that it has some of this key infrastructure in place to ensure that peace continues to flourish in the region.

Re: Removing the Roadblocks to Food Security

Thediffrence — Wed, 18 Apr 2012 13:41:11 -0000

The Profit Motive is wrong when addressing relief issues period. The profit motive is wrong pretty much all the time when dealing with social issues because it is selfish.

Re: Finishing unfinished business in the Balkans

Maxov Max — Mon, 09 Apr 2012 09:34:43 -0000

Srebrenica hoax planned in Washington and Sarajevo..........http://max-balkanboy.blogspot.com/201...

Re: Will Slovakia’s Robert Fico Be Another Viktor Orban?

Deniz McDonald — Thu, 05 Apr 2012 02:30:35 -0000

Mr. Demes has very valid observations about Slovakia, but one may want to look at the big picture to answer whether Fico will be new Orban or not. The Euro(pe) fatigue seems to be the main reason behind the Smer landslide. Secondly, the similarities are there but not overwhelming. Fico has been tamed somewhat by his previous experience and Slovakia does not have dreams of grandiose like Hungary's FIDESZ. So the similarities, populist rhetoric and riding on the general anti EU wave, end about there.

Re: Rare Earths Elements – Not Worth Fighting For

dag1966 — Wed, 21 Mar 2012 09:02:33 -0000

their metals not chemicals. used as magnets in electronics

Re: The Chinese Military’s Great Leap Forward

Dino — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 09:22:25 -0000

Unfortunately, I agree with Greg. Many claims and few facts in this article. Poor effort.

Re: The Chinese Military’s Great Leap Forward

greg — Thu, 08 Mar 2012 13:03:20 -0000

This article is such a load of craps. Almost every sentence, every accusation is baseless, false or biased. It all boils down to a basic fact: the rise of China has made people in some quarters really, really uncomfortable.

Deal with it.

Re: How Italy May Yet Save Europe…Really

Artameri — Sun, 04 Mar 2012 16:31:23 -0000

Eppur si muove ... The two supermarios evoked in the well informed article seem to have made it, at least for the moment. I find this rational optimism much more refreshing , interesting and above al credible than the recent revival of euro stereotypes we have bene exposed to. Two cheers for Monti, than we'll see.

Re: Book Review: “All In: The Education of General David Petraeus” by Paula Broadwell with Vernon Loeb

Vijayasingh777 — Fri, 02 Mar 2012 02:22:05 -0000

I love ur post about education of david general it's nice to read and give informative details.

Re: Poland and Germany: How Close is too Close?

Vijayasingh777 — Fri, 02 Mar 2012 02:20:35 -0000

I love ur post about closeness of poland and germany it's nice to read and give informative details.

Re: 1 in 6.2 billion

Vijayasingh777 — Fri, 02 Mar 2012 02:18:04 -0000

I love ur post about this grea information it's nice to read and give informative details.

Re: Recalibrating the U.S. Strategy in Afghanistan

Atta Nasib — Thu, 01 Mar 2012 16:06:31 -0000

Dear Dhruva,

This is an excellent take on the confounding voices coming from all spectrum on whether top stay or leave. However, not to forget the moral grounds that pushed for greater international presence in Afghanistan during and after the Taliban. Women have rights but they are not yet free, children go to school but their parents dread they might find them dead in the very schools the Taliban plan to set on fire, and the list goes on. The promise to not abandon Afghanistan once again should always be given some consideration as well. Yes there will be sacrifices and casualties to bear in mind but leaving Afghanistan at this critical moment will exacerbate violence all across the region. Afghanistan is a case where domestic politics (US of-course) should not fringe over the long term geo-political and strategic interests of all the actors involved.

Kudos and keep up the good work..

Re: Greece: A Geopolitical Crisis

Jbsc35 — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 15:30:45 -0000

GREECE BANCRUPT? Why don’t see it this way? [Found on a forum. Interesting.]

All of us in this world worked and had a living until recently. Suddenly the money is gone. Where has it gone? Well, we, the people, make money by contributing something to society. That makes the real money circuit. Others make money with money, they donâ€™t contribute anything to our society but only suck real money out of your purse. Money is not a commodity but is to make barter easier. When we put 100 dollars of our real money into a bank, the bank is allowed to lend the real-money makers [us, workers] ten times the amount you put in or 1000 dollars. You think it is money but it is credit only, it has no value at all. Immediately they start cashing in, say 7% real money for it from you, or 70 dollars a year while you get 2% for your 100 dollars in their bank that make
their business possible, so you get 2 dollars. Thus they make 35 times more than you do and on money that does not even exist. With their profit [interest], being your real money from labor, they buy up the world and return your real money to your real money circuit to start the game all over again. That way they become richer and richer with fake money without contributing anything to society. They eventually finance wars to keep their business going. When they overdo this, people are going short on their real money from labor and that is what causes the trouble in Greece. But don’t bother. They are not the only ones. This is happening all over the world now so stay put. Always realize that there are two money circuits: a real one and a fake one which is 10 times or more bigger and which is what the rich live on and keep us in line. Oh, there is a third circuit within the real money circuit from work: the black money circuit. But that is real money without paying tax for our society. In some countries it is 40% or more. Eliminate it and the country goes bankrupt. Is everything clear now? To stop them from draining you, put as little money in the bank as is necessary for barter and don’t borrow fake money.
Anonymous